Thursday, September 4, 2014

Predicting The Unpredictable: 2014 NFL Predictions

      Every fan and their Mother loves predictions, so why not? I'll shoot through my division winners, wild-card winners, and Super Bowl winner. Some of these picks will be complete head-scratchers to you guys and I'll probably regret it myself by week 7.

AFC East: New England Patriots
     This pick cannot be any more clear. Quarterback Tom Brady adds more weapons to his repertoire this season like Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen. All three of these players missed a significant chunk of the season last year. The defense looks similar to the 04-05 Super Bowl Pats teams. Vince Wilfork is back and ready to clog holes with a rejuvenated linebacking crew featuring the return of Jerod Mayo. We can't forget Bill Belichick's most shiny toy of them all, Darrelle Revis. This division is too much of a cakewalk with the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills.
Projection: 12-4

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals
     Andy Dalton just earned himself a substantial paycheck in the offseason. As long as Dalton has a healthy Marvin Jones and A.J. Green (caught total 21 TDs total) combination, this team should be able to survive this division. Throw in the speedy running back Giovanni Bernard and this is a complete offensive threat. The defense brings back defensive lineman Robert Geathers and Geno Atkins who both missed the second half of the season. The cornerbacks look deeper than ever with Terrance Newman, Leon Hall, Adam "Pacman" Jones, and rookie Darqueze Dennard which Head Coach Marvin Lewis called, "the best corner I've seen." A tough road schedule has the Bengals visiting Indianapolis, New England, and New Orleans.
Projection: 9-7

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
     This division seems like a lock for the Colts. When a team faces Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chad Henne a total six times in a year, it's going to be a nice season. I'm expecting Andrew Luck to have a breakout season, especially after the acquisition of Hakeem Nicks and the return of Reggie Wayne. The defense added D'Qwell Jackson from Cleveland to the linebacker mix and Arthur Jones from Baltimore to the defensive line. Both can help fix the 26th ranked rushing defense from last season.
Projection: 11-5

AFC West: Denver Broncos
     Peyton Manning is ready for payback against Seattle in February. He lost Eric Decker to the Jets, but added Emmanuel Sanders. Lost Knowshon Moreno to Miami, but has Montee Ball now. Then throw in Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, suspended Wes Welker and you have yourself a day Mr. Manning. Peyton will no longer have to get into shootouts like last season. The defense added linebacker DeMarcus Ware from Dallas to go along with Von Miller, which will be a nightmare for opposing running backs. Arguably the best cornerback in the league Aqib Talib and hard-hitting saftey T.J. Ward were both added for secondary purposes.
Projection: 13-3

AFC Wild Card: San Diego Chargers
     Phillip Rivers is another quarterback with many tools to work with. Chargers have a three-headed monster in the backfield consisting of Danny Woodhead, Ryan Matthews, and Donald Brown. Then throw in the tight end tandem of Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates. If Dwight Freeney is healthy and the Brandon Flowers addition succeeds, this team can compete for an AFC West title.
Projection: 10-6

AFC Wild Card: Pittsburgh Steelers
     Big Ben will return to old form this season. The Emmanuel Sanders loss at wide receiver hurt a little, but Antonio Brown, Darius Heyward-Bey, and Lance Moore should be enough for Ben. Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount are an underrated running back core as well. The defense did lose some valuable pieces in the past. Lawrence Timmons should be able to anchor the linebackers along with rookie Ryan Shazier.
Projection: 9-7

NFC East: New York Giants
     Yes, you read that correctly. No, you are not suffering from visual impairment. The Giants, Redskins, Eagles, and Cowboys all have strong offenses and we know that. Furthermore, Giants have the best defense out of the four, which will allow them to win by default. Eli Manning struggled with the new West Coast offense in the preseason, however he should be able to put it all together for the regular season. The secondary is what stood out for me on defense. Cornerback Walter Thurmond III of the champion Seahawks and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from the runner-up Broncos were both added to strengthen the Giants' secondary. If Jason Pierre-Paul can be the 2011 JPP where he had 16.5 sacks, this defense can be a threat again.
Projection: 9-7

NFC North: Green Bay Packers
     The Packers won the division last season with Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien performing as quarterbacks. Notice how I said, "performing as quarterbacks" because both looked like a carcass on the field. Aaron Rodgers is back with a healthy collarbone and ready to sling it to Jordy Nelson and a healthy Randall Cobb. Eddie Lacy is ready to be a top tier running back this season. The defense is where it becomes a tad questionable. They did add Julius Peppers who I'm not overly confident in anymore.
Projection: 11-5

NFC South: New Orleans Saints
     Another year indoors at the Superdome means another 8-0 home record for the Saints. The Panthers lost too many key pieces, the Falcons are a mess, the Bucs are still recovering, that sums up the rest of the NFC South division. The Saints did lose the explosive Darren Sproles in a trade to Philadelphia, but that should not effect them too much since they added rookie speed demon Brandin Cooks. The offense averaged a deadly 25.8 points per game last season, which shouldn't change this year. Longtime maniac Rob Ryan still runs the defensive side of the ball. Jarius Byrd was a big addition to the secondary from the Bills.
Projection: 13-3

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
     The Seahawks play in the hardest division in football and definitely have a target on their back from last season. I can't see the offense being as dominant as they were last year, but I can a stout defense coming back again. The defense gave up more than 20 points in a game only 3 times last season and gave up an average 13.3 points per game in the postseason. Plus, when you play in front of that ear-piercing 12th Man they'll guarantee victories at home for Seattle.
Projection: 10-6

NFC Wild Card: Chicago Bears
     The Monsters of the Midway should have a monster year. Opposing corners have to match up against Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall and worry about Matt Forte in the back. The defense lost Julius Peppers and grabbed pro bowler Jared Allen. The Bears are dangerous at all positions this year.
Projection: 10-6

NFC Wild Card: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
     The Buccaneers had a big offseason to steer their team back to the playoffs. Love Smith was assigned as the new Head Coach, which I love. Josh McCown tore it up for Chicago last season and now joins Tampa. He has three 6'5 targets to throw to: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins (man would they make a mean basketball team). Doug Martin should be back to old "muscle hamster" form. The defense looks nasty under Lovie Smith. Alterraun Verner came over from the Titans and Mike Jenkins from Oakland at corner. Throw in Mark Barron, Major Wright, and Dashon Goldson at safety and you got yourself a secondary.
Projection: 9-7
Super Bowl: Patriots over Packers 
     Both quarterbacks Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will carry their teams to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady will get through Andrew Luck and the Colts and Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the AFC. Aaron Rodgers will be healthy and take down New Orleans in the Superdome to lead Green Bay to the Super Bowl.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Breaking Down the MLB Races

     Five months of the Baseball season has ended and now the final stretch of wild races begin. September is a month when unprecedented Minor Leaguers are called to Major League rosters to help buoy their club to the postseason. It can be distraught, especially for teams that have collapsed in the past. The end of the tunnel is near for some teams, while some teams are still searching for the light. Let the madness begin!

The Safe Haven
Baltimore Orioles: 79-56 (1st in AL East)
     The O's seem to be safe for landing in the crowded American League East division. They stand 9 games up on the second place Yankees as of now. This Home Run hitting offense has anchored this team throughout the season with league-leading total 176 balls leaving the field. When smaller guys like Steve Pearce (16 HRs) and Jonathan Schoop (12 HRs) are jacking Home Runs out, then this team can go a long way. Not to mention Nelson Cruz (35 HRs) leads the league in Home Runs and his complimented by Adam Jones (24 HRs) and Chris Davis (24 HRs). Mean-muggin' Manager Buck Showalter has done a phenomenal job even when starting Catcher Matt Wieters and Third Baseman Manny Machado went down on season-ending surgeries.
Remaining Schedule: (1) vs MIN, (3) vs CIN, (3) @ TB, (3) @ BOS, (4) vs NYY, (3) vs TOR, (3) vs BOS, (4) @ NYY, (3) @ TOR.

Los Angeles Angels: 83-53 (1st in AL West)
     The Halos currently have the best record in baseball while riding a 6-game win streak. They stormed past the Athletics for first place in the American League West division and lead as many as 5 games. The Angels were banking on ace right-hander Garrett Richards all season until he had to have season-ending knee surgery. Matt Shoemaker has filled the void well going 5-1, 0.99 ERA, 0.66 WHIP the last 30 days. The Bullpen has been stout with the newest additions Jason Grilli and Huston Street. Potential AL MVP Mike Trout has carried this team all season defensively and offensively with a 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. If Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton can be a strong supporting cast for Mike Trout, this team can easily make a World Series run.
Remaining Schedule: (2) @ HOU, (4) @ MIN, (1) @ CLE, (3) @ TEX, (3) vs HOU, (4) vs SEA, (3) vs TEX, (3) @ OAK, (3) @ SEA.

Washington Nationals: 77-58 (1st in NL East)
     The Nats went 19-9 in the month of August to take a commanding 7-game lead on the Braves in the National League East. This team is dangerous right now without their best player Ryan Zimmerman sidelined with a hamstring injury. Imagine how far this Nats team can go with him in the lineup every day. Anthony Rendon has done a great job at Third Base batting .279 with 72 RBIs. Bryce Harper has helped out after almost being demoted and Jayson Werth's beard keeps on growing along with his .287 AVG and 75 RBIs. The Washington pitching might be deeper than anybody's in the league. Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, and Tanner Roark all have Earned Run Averages that dip lower than 3.00 and throw in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez in the mix.
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ LAD, (3) vs PHI, (3) vs ATL, (4) @ NYM, (3) @ ATL, (4) @ MIA, (3) vs NYM, (4) vs MIA.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 77-60 (1st in NL West)
     San Francisco is creeping up on Los Angeles in the National League West, only 2.5 games out. The Dodgers still seem like a lock to make the postseason. Clayton Kershaw has proved to be the best Pitcher on this planet with a 16-3 record, 1.73 ERA, 0.84 WHIP. Zack Greinke can be an ace on any other team with a 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Adrian Gonzalez has been great all year, driving in 91 RBIs. The rest of the lineup is littered with talent, from Stolen Base Leader Dee Gordon, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner (.325 AVG), Hanley Ramirez, and Matt Kemp. If Ramirez is healthy and Kemp continues to live up to his $21 Million contract, this team will be playing in October without a doubt.
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs WAS, (3) vs ARI, (3) vs SD, (3) @ SF, (3) @ COL, (4) @ CHC, (3) vs SF, (3) vs COL.

The Crowd
Kansas City Royals: 74-61 (1st in AL Central)
     The Royals hold the longest Major League Baseball postseason drought at 28 years. This might be the year they finally end the postseason absence, as they hold a half game lead on Detroit in the American League Central. Kansas City plays like an old-fashioned baseball club: situational baseball and a tidy defense. Alex Gordon is playing like the best player that nobody has heard of. The former Third Baseman, now converted to Left Field is batting .280 with 63 RBIs and has a knack for hitting walk-offs. The speed of Jarrod Dyson and Lorenzo Cain have also patrolled one of the deepest outfields with Gordon. It's hard to believe the Royals were 48-46 at the All-Star break. 
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs TEX, (3) @ NYY, (3) @ DET, (4) vs BOS, (3) vs CHW, (3) vs DET, (3) @ CLE, (4) @ CHW. 

Oakland Athletics: 78-58 (1st AL Wild Card)
     The Athletics hold that first Wild Card spot in the American League right now. However, it has been ugly of late, going 12-16 in August and allowing the surging Angels to take over the AL West. The Yoenis Cespedes trade has been an strong indication that this offense has plummeted into a slump. The A's were shutout only three times all year with Cespedes. Without Yoenis, the offense has been shutout four times. Scott Kazmir finally hit a roadblock, giving up 26 Earned Runs over his last 30 Innings Pitched. Jason Hammel who had a 2.98 ERA with Chicago, has a 5.77 ERA since being dealt to Oakland. Not sure if newly acquired Adam Dunn will be able to spark this lifeless offense before it's too late. 
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs SEA, (3) vs HOU,  (4) @ CHW, (3) @ SEA, (3) vs TEX, (3) vs PHI, (3) vs LAA, (4) @ TEX. 

Detroit Tigers: 74-62 (2nd AL Wild Card)
     The Tigers are in a jumbled race, sitting half-game out of Kansas City for the division and the second Wild Card spot. David Price hasn't been the Tampa Bay David Price of late. He holds a 4.41 ERA with Detroit since being acquired from the Rays. Max Scherzer has been virtually the best Pitcher in the American League with a 15-5 record and 220 Ks. Kate Upton has gotten into Justin Verlander's head as the former stud is only 12-11 with a 4.68 ERA. The lineup still has last year's MVP Miguel Cabrera in it and role players like Tori Hunter, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Victor Martinez to wreak havoc for pitchers down the stretch. 
Remaining Schedule: (4) @ CLE, (3) vs SF, (3) vs KC, (3) vs CLE, (3) @ MIN, (3) @ KC, (3) vs CHW, (4) vs MIN. 

Seattle Mariners: 73-62 (3rd AL Wild Card)
     The M's just won't go away. Seattle is a half-game back of the Tigers in the American League Wild Card race. Robinson Cano has revived this offense from a year ago, batting .324 with an On Base Percentage of .391. Third Baseman Kyle Seager has emerged as one of the best at his position in the league. Cano and Seager combine for an outstanding 10.9 Wins Above Replacement. It's not the offense that is keeping Seattle afloat though, the Pitching has been phenomenal. The staff has the lowest ERA in baseball at 3.02 along with the lowest opponents batting average of .226. The Mariners can be real scary in the hunt. 
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ OAK, (4) @ TEX, (3) vs HOU, (3) vs OAK, (4) @ LAA, (3) @ HOU, (4) @ TOR, (3) vs LAA. 

San Francisco Giants: 74-62 (1st NL Wild Card)
     The Giants are riding a 6-game win streak leading them to the top of the National League Wild Card spot. San Francisco sits in the rearview mirror of the Dodgers at 2.5 games back in the division. It seems every night the Giants have a no-hitter going through the seventh inning. Madison Bumgarner leads the rotation with a 2.97 ERA, 16-9 record, 1.04 WHIP, and 199 Ks. If the offense can provide protection for the Pitching, which they have done lately, this team can go deep into the postseason. 
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ COL, (3) @ DET, (3) vs ARI, (3) vs LAD, (3) @ ARI, (3) @ SD, (3) @ LAD, (4) vs SD. 

St. Louis Cardinals: 73-63 (Tied 1st in NL Central/2nd NL Wild Card)
     The Cards seem to be in St. Louis' favor. They fought back to partially regain the National League Central against the slumping Brewers and Yadier Molina has returned to his catching duties. Michael Wahca continues to remain of the DL, but should be back very soon. Small pieces such as Jon Jay (.311 AVG), Jhonny Peralta (5.6 WAR), and Matt Adams (.294 AVG) have supplemented the big stars like Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday well. The Cardinals are known to finish strong in September year after year.
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs PIT, (4) @ MIL, (4) @ CIN, (3) vs COL, (3) vs MIL, (3) vs CIN, (3) @ CHC, (3) @ ARI.  

Milwaukee Brewers: 73-63 (Tied 1st in NL Central/ 2nd NL Wild Card)
     The Brew Crew are riding a 5-game losing skid allowing the Cardinals to stampede back into the race. The Starting Pitching is crumbling a little bit, especially after surrendering 31 total runs to the Giants last series. Matt Garza was just activated from the 15-day DL which could help the rotation. Jonathan Broxton was recently added from the Cincinnati Reds to bolster the bullpen. They do have a good amount of bats on this team, but most of them are not hitting like they did early in the year. I have this team missing the playoffs.
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ CHC, (4) vs STL, (4) vs MIA, (3) vs CIN, (3) @ STL, (3) @ PIT, (3) @ CIN, (3) vs CHC.

The Lingering 
Cleveland Indians: 70-64 (4th in AL Wild Card/ 3rd AL Central)
     The 2014 Indians look very similar to the 2013 Indians. They were in the same exact spot (3.5 games out of Wild Card) September 1st of last season. Cleveland later squeezed their way into the 2013 Wild Card spot. This year I can't see that happening again. Starting Pitcher Corey Kluber has kept the Tribe in the race with his 2.72 ERA and 215 Ks. Michael Brantley has emerged as solid hitter batting .310 with 85 RBIs. With LeBron coming home and the Johnny Manziel saga going on, I still can't see the city of Cleveland having a playoff baseball team this season.
Remaining Schedule: (4) vs DET, (3) vs CHW, (1) vs LAA, (3) vs MIN, (3) @ DET, (4) @ HOU, (3) @ MIN, (3) vs KC, (3) vs TB.

New York Yankees: 70-65 (5th in AL Wild Card/ 2nd AL East)
     The Yanks are 4 games out of the nearest Wild Card spot. The rotation is on its last legs with Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and David Phelps all on the DL. Martin Prado has provided a much-needed spark to the lineup batting .282 since arriving from Arizona. There's a strong possibility Derek Jeter's farewell tour ends in September.
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs BOS, (3) vs KC, (3) vs TB, (4) @ BAL, (3) @ TB, (4) vs TOR, (4) vs BAL, (3) @ BOS.

Toronto Blue Jays: 69-67 (6th AL Wild Card/ 3rd AL East) 
     The Jays are experiencing another second half season nightmare. Mark Buehrle has a combined 5.75 ERA the past two months after being brilliant the first few months of the season. The Edwin Encarnacion injury really took a toll on Toronto, going 16-17 with him out of the lineup. I thought the Blue Jays should have added another piece at the trade deadline, but stood pat. With a healthy lineup this team can make a dent in the race.
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ TB, (3) @ BOS, (3) vs CHC, (3) vs TB, (3) @ BAL, (4) @ NYY, (4) vs SEA, (3) vs BAL.

Atlanta Braves: 72-65: (3rd NL Wild Card/ 2nd NL East)
     The National League East looks like a lock with the Nationals, however the Braves are only 1 game back in the Wild Card race. Both 23-year-olds Julio Teheran and Alex Wood have done a fine job averaging a combined 2.91 ERA. Justin Upton has become a perennial star in this league, batting .286, 26 HRs, and 91 RBIs. The Pittsburgh series late in September might decide their fate.
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs PHI, (3) @ MIA, (3) @ WAS, (3) @ TEX, (3) vs WAS, (3) vs NYM, (4) vs PIT, (3) @ PHI.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-65 (4th NL Wild Card/ 3rd NL Central)
     Boy did the Bucs miss Andrew McCutchen dearly when he landed on the DL. The Pirates went 5-9 when the reigning MVP was absent in the lineup. Now he's back and healthy batting .308, with 21 HRs, 72 RBIs, and a .401 OBP. Josh Harrison is red hot batting .311 and holds a 4.6 WAR. Edinson Volquez and Gerrit Cole provide a solid one-two punch for the pitching side. Playoff baseball was finally back in Pittsburgh last Fall with a strong chance it's back again.
Remaining Schedule: (3) @ STL, (3) @ CHC, (4) @ PHI, (3) vs CHC, (3) vs BOS, (3) vs MIL, (4) @ ATL, (3) @ CIN.

Miami Marlins: 66-69 (5th NL Wild Card/ 3rd NL East)
     Many people, including myself, thought the Fish were done when the 2013 Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez went down in early May for Tommy John surgery. Much credit goes to Giancarlo Stanton for carrying this team this far leading the National League in HRs (34) and RBIs (99) and an impressive .401 OBP. Third Baseman Casey McGehee has been great this year batting .296 with a .366 OBP after playing in Japan last season. This Miami team is just too young and inexperienced to capitalize on a late postseason run.
Remaining Schedule: (3) vs NYM, (3) vs ATL, (4) vs MIL, (3) vs PHI, (3) @ NYM, (4) vs WAS, (3) vs PHI, (4) @ WAS